Report Card: Sadly, our new UCP government followed up on their election promises. I estimated corporate tax breaks of about 1.3 billion, but that bill is now about 3 billion dollars or more. Our oil sector did very well with record production and profits, even without a new pipeline, but of course, they didn't turn down the tax break. Employment in that sector is still dropping, largely due to automation. Budgets for solar subsidies have been frozen, as have most major infrastructure projects.
Reported cut-backs in our cities include cuts to homeless programs and lay-offs of about 200 educators so far.The provincial carbon tax, adopted a few years as a concession to the conservatives, was repealed as promised, and so far the Federal carbon tax has stood up in court.
Kenney has still not offered a plan to withhold Federal taxes to make good his on promise to withhold equalization transfers.
The UCP actions made my numbers look damn optimistic.
New Math
Ron stuffed a stack of napkins, covered with scribbles, into his briefcase as the policy group scattered out of the food court to find their wives in the mall.
“Coffee?” he asked as he slammed his bulk on the case to click the straining clasps. He smirked at the bits of napkin peeking out of the brief case.
“That looked like a pretty intense meeting,” I began as we settled at the table with our ten-gallon coffee cups.
“Yup, now that Kenney is elected, we need to figure out how to deliver on those promises,” he said, and scowled at the briefcase again. “It’s a lot of math.” He doesn’t often confide, so I balanced my pen over my napkin and encouraged him to go on.
“First of all we gain just under 2 billion by holding back the share of equalization taxes that would go toQuebec
I wasn’t going to wreck the moment by telling him it wouldn’t work, so I just wrote ‘+2’ at the top of the napkin. “Ok, that’s a pretty positive number,” I said.
“Right,” he continued, “then we kill the carbon tax. That means we give up about a half billion in revenue.” I didn’t volunteer that Trudeau's tax of about 1.5 billion, to be paid by Albertans, would kick in instead. I let that little detail slip by and wrote ‘-.5’ on the napkin.
“Didn’tOttawa
Ron waved off the question, “that’s a lousy 1.4 billion – no big deal.” I wrote down ‘-1.4’ and looked up.
“Then there’s the 4 billionOttawa
“Yeah, maybe,” he muttered. “Let’s get back to the numbers please.” I nodded in reply, but I still put ‘-4’ under the growing column.
“Now we drop the corporate and business taxes from roughly 4 billion to about 2.7 billion.” He grinned with arms outstretched, “We are open for business!” I smiled and entered ‘-1.3’ on the napkin.
“Then we promised to balance the budget. We’re about 7 billion in the hole this year.” I wrote a bold ‘-7’ on the napkin in front of me. “Whoo, that’s a biggie,” he agreed as he glanced at the numbers.
“There are only a couple of little ones left,” he said and pointed to the napkin. “We’ll cut off the oil to B.C. until they let us build a pipeline. But that’s only about ten percent of our oil production.” I wrote ‘-?’ because there was no sense in making up numbers.
“And we don't know how much those lawsuits are going to cost. But we’re going to stop those pesky environmentalists and those crappy journalists,” he mused as I wrote another ‘-?’
“Is our provincial budget still at roughly 48 billion?” I asked as I tallied up the numbers on the napkin.
“So far,” he asserted. “But that could change a bit.” I sat back in my chair after I circled the total of ‘-12.2’; that’s in billions.
“So it seems that Albertans voted for a 20 percent personal tax increase at best, and maybe even up to 33 percent if things go sideways,” I said. I hoped the pit in my stomach didn’t show on my face.
“Geeez,” he said, as he chuckled once more. “Math is complicated, eh?”
“I’m missing something here,” I replied as we finished our coffees. He didn't answer so I went on, “You must have something up your sleeves.”
“You betcha,” he exclaimed. He was grinning from ear to ear and gleefully rubbing his hands together. “We can cut the education budget --that way the numbers work. Even better yet -- that way Albertans will never figure out the math!”
I paid for the coffees and counted the change carefully. I knew that it was the only change I would see for a long time.
“Coffee?” he asked as he slammed his bulk on the case to click the straining clasps. He smirked at the bits of napkin peeking out of the brief case.
“That looked like a pretty intense meeting,” I began as we settled at the table with our ten-gallon coffee cups.
“Yup, now that Kenney is elected, we need to figure out how to deliver on those promises,” he said, and scowled at the briefcase again. “It’s a lot of math.” He doesn’t often confide, so I balanced my pen over my napkin and encouraged him to go on.
“First of all we gain just under 2 billion by holding back the share of equalization taxes that would go to
I wasn’t going to wreck the moment by telling him it wouldn’t work, so I just wrote ‘+2’ at the top of the napkin. “Ok, that’s a pretty positive number,” I said.
“Right,” he continued, “then we kill the carbon tax. That means we give up about a half billion in revenue.” I didn’t volunteer that Trudeau's tax of about 1.5 billion, to be paid by Albertans, would kick in instead. I let that little detail slip by and wrote ‘-.5’ on the napkin.
“Didn’t
Ron waved off the question, “that’s a lousy 1.4 billion – no big deal.” I wrote down ‘-1.4’ and looked up.
“Then there’s the 4 billion
“Yeah, maybe,” he muttered. “Let’s get back to the numbers please.” I nodded in reply, but I still put ‘-4’ under the growing column.
“Now we drop the corporate and business taxes from roughly 4 billion to about 2.7 billion.” He grinned with arms outstretched, “We are open for business!” I smiled and entered ‘-1.3’ on the napkin.
“Then we promised to balance the budget. We’re about 7 billion in the hole this year.” I wrote a bold ‘-7’ on the napkin in front of me. “Whoo, that’s a biggie,” he agreed as he glanced at the numbers.
“There are only a couple of little ones left,” he said and pointed to the napkin. “We’ll cut off the oil to B.C. until they let us build a pipeline. But that’s only about ten percent of our oil production.” I wrote ‘-?’ because there was no sense in making up numbers.
“And we don't know how much those lawsuits are going to cost. But we’re going to stop those pesky environmentalists and those crappy journalists,” he mused as I wrote another ‘-?’
“Is our provincial budget still at roughly 48 billion?” I asked as I tallied up the numbers on the napkin.
“So far,” he asserted. “But that could change a bit.” I sat back in my chair after I circled the total of ‘-12.2’; that’s in billions.
“So it seems that Albertans voted for a 20 percent personal tax increase at best, and maybe even up to 33 percent if things go sideways,” I said. I hoped the pit in my stomach didn’t show on my face.
“Geeez,” he said, as he chuckled once more. “Math is complicated, eh?”
“I’m missing something here,” I replied as we finished our coffees. He didn't answer so I went on, “You must have something up your sleeves.”
“You betcha,” he exclaimed. He was grinning from ear to ear and gleefully rubbing his hands together. “We can cut the education budget --that way the numbers work. Even better yet -- that way Albertans will never figure out the math!”
I paid for the coffees and counted the change carefully. I knew that it was the only change I would see for a long time.
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